{"id":412,"date":"2025-06-13T23:28:25","date_gmt":"2025-06-13T23:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/?p=412"},"modified":"2025-07-21T14:30:19","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T14:30:19","slug":"the-state-of-venture-in-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/2025\/06\/13\/the-state-of-venture-in-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"The State of Venture in 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p><em>Hello and welcome to <strong>The GTM Newsletter by GTMnow <\/strong>\u2013 read by 50,000+ to scale their companies and careers. GTMnow shares insight around the go-to-market strategies responsible for explosive company growth. GTMnow highlights the strategies, along with the stories from the top 1% of GTM executives, VCs, and founders behind these strategies and companies.<\/em><\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<p>In 2021, capital was abundant, valuations were soaring, and venture moved fast. Founders raised rounds in days. Metrics mattered, but not nearly as much as momentum.<\/p>\n<p>2025 is a different world.<\/p>\n<p>Today, capital is still there. But it\u2019s more selective, more disciplined, and more demanding. Valuations are climbing at the seed stage, but follow-on conversion is dropping. IPOs haven\u2019t returned in full force, but liquidity has (mostly through secondaries and M&amp;A). And for the companies that break through? The exits are getting bigger, much bigger.<\/p>\n<p>This is some of the insight that we went through at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/maxaltschuler_today-marks-a-milestone-for-the-gtmfund-as-activity-7336713982856019974-dn7k?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAB-zOXwB7j95XB6LBuQURXJ8m_cTOBDTz_U\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GTMfund\u2019s Annual General Meeting (AGM)<\/a> last week in NYC.<\/p>\n<p>This piece unpacks that further \u2013 where venture is, where it\u2019s going, and what it means for early-stage founders building now.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The bar is higher, but so are the stakes<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>\u201cThis isn\u2019t 2021. The environment is leaner, but the outcomes are larger.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The venture market in 2025 is more bifurcated than ever. Fewer companies are getting funded, but those that do are commanding premium terms. We\u2019re in a true <strong>flight to quality<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>This is visible in two places:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Startup formation is down \u2013 just 40% of 2021\u2019s peak, according to AngelList.<\/li>\n<li>Capital is still flowing \u2013 but into fewer rounds, at higher dollar amounts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>At the Series B stage, Q1 2025 saw more total capital raised than previous quarters, despite fewer deals closing. More conviction, fewer bets.<\/p>\n<p>This is the paradox: it\u2019s harder than ever to raise, but for the right company capital is still abundant.<\/p>\n<h2>The real bottleneck is Series A<\/h2>\n<p>Raising a priced seed round is no longer the milestone it once was. The real crucible is graduating to Series A.<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"748\" data-src=\"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/978f963c-3156-4618-8d95-e4b379f1f046_1646x846.jpg\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>According to Carta, graduation rates from Seed to Series A have dropped significantly. For cohorts in late 2022 and 2023, only ~6\u20139% of companies raised a Series A within a year. Even after 2 years, fewer than 20% had graduated.<\/p>\n<p>This has real implications for founders:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>You need to build GTM traction earlier.<\/li>\n<li>Narrative, clarity, and category leadership matter more than ever.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Meanwhile, seed valuations are climbing.<\/p>\n<p>The median pre-money valuation in Q1 2025 is $16.1M for digital companies. Median cash raised is above $4M. This means the bar for post-seed performance has also risen\u2014because investors expect more from a higher entry point.<\/p>\n<h2>Liquidity is back \u2013 and it\u2019s not just IPOs<\/h2>\n<p>Liquidity is strong, even without a robust IPO market. There are two major drivers behind this:<\/p>\n<h3>Secondaries are booming<\/h3>\n<p>2025 is projected to be the largest year ever for global venture secondaries. Stripe, Canva, OpenAI, Databricks, and others have all participated in major tender offers. There\u2019s projected to be over $120B in secondary volume \u2013 creating real, early liquidity options for employees and early investors.<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"742\" data-src=\"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/293e3446-ca64-4ce9-9cad-f36dddff64e8_1676x854.jpg\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>This is reshaping how long people stay at companies, how firms return capital, and how much patience is required to get liquidity.<\/p>\n<h3>M&amp;A is accelerating<\/h3>\n<p>According to Carta, Q1 2025 was the most active M&amp;A quarter in recent memory. Q4 2024 wasn\u2019t far behind.<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"773\" data-src=\"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/81b10283-0add-4b5b-af72-63418f48a1ec_1608x854.jpg\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Private companies are increasingly being acquired by strategic buyers, and the return of M&amp;A has created additional options for founders looking for outcomes before a public listing.<\/p>\n<p>For example, GTMfund portfolio company <a href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/braze-picks-up-ai-decisioning-with-offerfit-acquisition\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">OfferFit was acquired by Braze for $325M this year.<\/a><\/p>\n<h2>Exits are compounding faster<\/h2>\n<p>Liquidity is great, but what about upside?<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"757\" data-src=\"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/91089831-f8e8-4cb5-8028-86d9ff5b05f7_1642x854.png\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>The data shows that venture outcomes are getting significantly bigger. In fact, the 99th percentile exit today is more than 7x higher than it was just a decade ago.<\/p>\n<p>In 2005\u20132009, the 99th percentile venture exit was around $1.4B. Today? It\u2019s over $10.2B.<\/p>\n<p>Companies are staying private longer, compounding value further, and exiting at materially higher valuations. The venture model is working \u2013 it\u2019s just taking longer and demanding more.<\/p>\n<h2>AI is expanding the market beyond software<\/h2>\n<p>AI is unlocking opportunity. It\u2019s so much bigger than just cloud or SaaS.<\/p>\n<p>At the start of the cloud era, software was a ~$350B market. It took 15 years to grow the cloud economy to $400B.<\/p>\n<p>AI starts in a radically different place: the $10T global services market.<\/p>\n<p>That means AI isn\u2019t just expanding existing categories, it\u2019s productizing massive swaths of manual services. And the founders who build systems that replace (or reinvent ) those services define the next generation of software.<\/p>\n<p>The TAM is bigger than ever. The stakes are higher. And the tools are more powerful than anything we\u2019ve seen before.<\/p>\n<div class=\"captioned-image-container\">\n<figure>\n<div class=\"image2-inset\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"sizing-normal lazyload\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\" width=\"1456\" height=\"734\" data-src=\"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/dd4e63e2-a6ff-46ad-bb8e-df7b721b7599_1686x850.jpg\"><\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>If you\u2019re building something meaningful, there\u2019s capital (and there\u2019s upside). But you need to know the terrain. The climb is steeper, but the summit is higher.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<p class=\"button-wrapper\" style=\"text-align: center\" data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\"><a class=\"button primary\" href=\"https:\/\/thegtmnewsletter.substack.com\/p\/the-state-of-venture-in-2025?utm_source=substack&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_content=share&amp;action=share\">Share<\/a><\/p>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center\"><em> Tag GTMnow so we can see your takeaways and help amplify them.<\/em><\/h6>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h4><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\u2705\" class=\"wp-smiley lazyload\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" data-src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/2705.png\"> Recommendations<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/userevidence.com\/the-evidence-gap-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Evidence Gap Report<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This report unpacks the findings from 619 B2B buyers, sellers, and marketers to uncover the exact types of customer proof that actually build trust and boost buyer confidence. The TL;DR? They want data, relevance, and <em>actual<\/em> proof.<\/p>\n<p>67% of sellers have watched deals slip through their fingers because they couldn\u2019t provide relevant, specific customer proof. Learn how to avoid this fate.<\/p>\n<p>Grab <a href=\"https:\/\/userevidence.com\/the-evidence-gap-report\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">this report<\/a> and learn how to give them the evidence they need.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h4><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\ud83d\udc42\" class=\"wp-smiley lazyload\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" data-src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f442.png\"> More for your eardrums<\/strong><\/h4>\n<blockquote>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/gtmnow.com\/gtm-150-80-of-exec-roles-arent-posted-heres-how-to-land-them-anyway-with-andy-mowat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GTM 150: 80% of Exec Roles Aren\u2019t Posted, Here\u2019s How to Land Them Anyway with Andy Mowat<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This episode explores how go-to-market leaders can navigate today\u2019s hiring market \u2014 and land their next role in a tough market.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/amowat\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Andy Mowat<\/a>, a seasoned operator and multi-time founder, breaks down what GTM executives need to know to stand out, get hired, and avoid common pitfalls. He shares tactical advice for senior operators re-entering the job market, how to build relationships with VCs and recruiters, and what founders are really looking for when hiring GTM leaders.<\/p>\n<p>Listen on <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/ca\/podcast\/the-gtm-podcast\/id1369291464\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Apple<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2SA1dgQ2Yc5t4V5GcBLnD2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spotify<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/@GTM_now\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a>, or wherever you get your podcasts by searching \u201cThe GTM Podcast.\u201d<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h4><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\ud83d\ude80\" class=\"wp-smiley lazyload\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" data-src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f680.png\"><strong> Startup to watch<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/may-habib_writer-made-its-debut-on-the-cnbc-disruptor-activity-7338229885414354945-6gT2\">Writer <\/a><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/may-habib_writer-made-its-debut-on-the-cnbc-disruptor-activity-7338229885414354945-6gT2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u2013 debuts at #22 on the CNBC Disruptor 50 list<\/a>. Writer helps enterprises build custom AI apps using their own data\u2014on-brand, compliant, and ready to plug into existing workflows. Trusted by 300+ companies, it\u2019s delivering serious ROI where generic AI tools fall short.<\/p>\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/cursorai_weve-raised-900-million-in-series-c-funding-activity-7336799197838417921-I61-\">Cursor <\/a><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/cursorai_weve-raised-900-million-in-series-c-funding-activity-7336799197838417921-I61-\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u2013 raised $900 million in Series C funding.<\/a> Cursor is redefining how software gets built\u2014an AI-native dev environment that\u2019s already powering the next wave of high-growth startups. With nearly $1B in fresh funding and a $10B valuation, it\u2019s an intesting one to keep an eye on<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h4><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\ud83d\udc40\" class=\"wp-smiley lazyload\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" data-src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f440.png\"> More for your eyeballs<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/a16z.com\/geo-over-seo\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) rewrites the rules of search<\/a>. A new paradigm is emerging, one driven not by page rank, but by language models. We\u2019re entering Act II of search: GEO. This is something we\u2019re diving deeper into as a community at GTMfund and will report thoughts on.<\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h4><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\ud83d\udd25\" class=\"wp-smiley lazyload\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" data-src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f525.png\"> Hottest GTM jobs of the week<\/strong><\/h4>\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.ashbyhq.com\/finally\/22b5c1bc-145a-4ad1-a8a6-0ff515491e0d\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Marketing Development Representative<\/a> at finally <em>(Boca Raton, FL)<\/em><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/apply.workable.com\/userevidence\/j\/2B7EBF13DB\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Senior Growth Marketing Manager<\/a> at UserEvidence <em>(Remote \u2013 US)<\/em><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.lever.co\/owner\/bf87e773-0d68-4440-94be-6b0c3e8e18c6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Growth Product Manager<\/a> at Owner (Remote \u2013 US\/Canada)<\/li>\n<li>Account Executive \u2013 SMB at Gorgias:\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.ashbyhq.com\/gorgias\/c0451c39-cbb0-41e3-b5f6-177f488f8081\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paris \u2013 Hybrid<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.ashbyhq.com\/gorgias\/ad77f0d2-5783-4301-8c15-7eed61cd2fb5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Belgrade \u2013 Hybrid<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/job-boards.greenhouse.io\/alt\/jobs\/6601399003\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Account Executive<\/a> at Alt <em>(Remote \u2013 US)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>See more top GTM jobs on the <a href=\"https:\/\/jobs.gtmfund.com\/jobs\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GTMfund Job Board<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em>If you\u2019re looking to scale your sales and marketing teams with top talent, we couldn\u2019t recommend our partner <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pursuitsalessolutions.com\/gtm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pursuit<\/a> more. We work closely together to be able to provide the top go-to-market talent for companies on a non-retainer basis.<\/em><\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h4><strong><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"data:image\/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAAAAACH5BAEKAAEALAAAAAABAAEAAAICTAEAOw==\" alt=\"\ud83d\uddd3\" class=\"wp-smiley lazyload\" style=\"height: 1em;max-height: 1em\" data-src=\"https:\/\/s.w.org\/images\/core\/emoji\/15.1.0\/72x72\/1f5d3.png\"> GTM industry events<\/strong><\/h4>\n<p><em>Upcoming go-to-market events you won\u2019t want to miss:<\/em><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zoominfo.com\/gtm25-london\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GTM 25 Roadshow London<\/a> (by ZoomInfo): June 19, 2025 <em>(London, UK)<\/em><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/attendgtm.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pavilion GTM Summit<\/a>: September 23-25, 2025 <em>(Washington, DC)<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"button-wrapper\" style=\"text-align: center\" data-component-name=\"ButtonCreateButton\"><a class=\"button primary\" href=\"https:\/\/thegtmnewsletter.substack.com\/subscribe?\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Subscribe now<\/a><\/p>\n<div>\n<hr \/>\n<\/div>\n<h6 style=\"text-align: center\">This newsletter was written and edited by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/sophiebuonassisi\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Sophie Buonassisi<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/maxaltschuler\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Max Altschuler<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/paulsirving\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Paul Irving<\/a> and the <a href=\"https:\/\/gtmnow.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GTMnow<\/a> team (not AI!).<\/h6>\n<\/div>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/gtmnow.com\/the-state-of-venture-in-2025\/\">The State of Venture in 2025<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/gtmnow.com\">GTMnow<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hello and welcome to The GTM Newsletter by GTMnow \u2013 read by 50,000+ to scale their companies and careers. GTMnow shares insight around the go-to-market strategies responsible for explosive company growth. GTMnow highlights the strategies, along with the stories from the top 1% of GTM executives, VCs, and founders behind these strategies and companies. In [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":414,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[19],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=412"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":420,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/412\/revisions\/420"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/414"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zoltrunakiver.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}